Critical Uncertainties

Long-Term Orientation and Visioning Systems Thinking Resilience

Depth · what it can open●○○○1 — informational

Holding · facilitation2 — facilitator

Trust · group readiness★any

Disclosure · what is sharednone

Fast scenario planning: the group picks its two most critical and most uncertain factors, crosses them into four plausible futures, and small groups develop a strategy for operating in each quadrant — then compare, looking for robust moves that work across futures and hedges for the rest. Strategy as preparation for surprise rather than prediction.

Practical

Time: 90 min
Group: 4–∞ · small-group, large-group
Settings: in-person, online
Materials: Wall 2×2 template; sticky notes; small tables
Mechanisms: systems-sensing, cognitive-reframing, perspective-taking
Change scope: state → skill · repeatable

Origin & where it lives

Henri Lipmanowicz & Keith McCandless (compressed from the scenario-planning tradition, GBN/Schwartz) — Liberating Structures / scenario planning

Instructions: open online · CC BY-SA 4.0

In this directory via Liberating Structures

status: checked · added 2026-08-25