exercise · all tools
Critical Uncertainties
Fast scenario planning: the group picks its two most critical and most uncertain factors, crosses them into four plausible futures, and small groups develop a strategy for operating in each quadrant — then compare, looking for robust moves that work across futures and hedges for the rest. Strategy as preparation for surprise rather than prediction.
Practical
- Time
- 90 min
- Group
- 4–∞ · small-group, large-group
- Settings
- in-person, online
- Materials
- Wall 2×2 template; sticky notes; small tables
- Mechanisms
- systems-sensing, cognitive-reframing, perspective-taking
- Change scope
- state → skill · repeatable
Instructions
- Where
- liberatingstructures.com/critical-uncertainties — Liberating Structures, open
- Availability
- Open online — published at the link, free to read
- Licence
- CC BY-SA 4.0
Source link checked 29 Aug 2026 — unchanged since we recorded it on 28 Aug 2026
This directory describes and points home; the instructions stay with the people who made them.
Origin
Henri Lipmanowicz & Keith McCandless (compressed from the scenario-planning tradition, GBN/Schwartz) — Liberating Structures / scenario planning
In this directory via Liberating Structures
status: checked · added 2026-08-25